U.S. Cripples Iran’s Nuclear Program: The View From Israel

On Saturday night, as Israelis slept, the U.S. struck a deadly blow to Iran’s nuclear program. American missiles obliterated Iran’s primary nuclear facilities: Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. Fordo, buried deep within a mountain near Qom, was a fortified enrichment site with 2,700 centrifuges, capable of producing uranium enriched to 60%, a threshold perilously close to weapons-grade material. Its destruction halts Iran’s ability to rapidly advance toward a nuclear weapon, especially after Natanz’s earlier damage by Israel. Natanz, Iran’s largest enrichment plant, housed over 5,000 centrifuges and was a cornerstone of its uranium production, with a capacity to generate significant low-enriched uranium stockpile. Isfahan, a hub for nuclear research and fuel production, supported the broader program’s infrastructure. According to Israeli officials, Isfahan housed equipment used to convert highly-enriched uranium to a nuclear warhead. These sites were existential threats, with Natanz and Fordo alone accounting for 90% of Iran’s enrichment capacity pre-strike. Their destruction delays Iran’s nuclear breakout, potentially by years, and disrupts its symbolic and strategic leverage.

The U.S. employed a combination of advanced weaponry to penetrate Iran’s defenses. Reports indicate the use of B-2 Spirit stealth bombers, carrying GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs), 30,000-pound bunker-busters designed to penetrate 60 meters of concrete or 200 meters of earth. The B-2’s took off from Whiteman Air Force Base near Kansas City, Missouri, and flew to Fordo and then back to Missouri, a 37-hour trip, refuelling multiple times along the way. Many civilian radar applications picked up the jets as they made their way eastward. The running assumption was that the aircraft were headed for Diego Garcia to serve as a standing threat of President Trump’s willingness to use them if needed. Most people did not know that they were already flying on their mission. The number of MOPs used over Fordo, and potentially Isfahan, is not clearly known, but the assumption is that at least twelve were used in Fordo.

Submarine-launched Tomahawk cruise missiles, fired from the USS Nimitz in the Persian Gulf, complemented the air assault, targeting surface infrastructure. Each cruise missile carried a warhead weighing half a ton, about the weight of one of the smaller munitions Israel had been using to bomb Iran. This precision strike capability, honed in simulations, aimed to maximize destruction while minimizing collateral damage, though Iran reported “no signs of contamination,” suggesting controlled fallout. The Trump Administration touts this as a “spectacular military success,” but the extent of the damage remains yet unknown. The use of U.S.-specific assets, unavailable to Israel, underscores the operation’s reliance on American technological superiority.

Israel had demonstrated significant capability since June 13, destroying over 120 launchers and damaging Natanz and other sites with its IAF jets. Yet, the U.S. intervened, ostensibly because Israel lacked the munitions  to neutralize Fordo’s subterranean core, a gap Trump addressed to “deny the world’s most dangerous regime the world’s most dangerous weapons.” Trump’s attitude over the past few weeks toward an Iranian strike was baffling, perhaps purposely so. Trump wavered, initially delaying Israel’s plans while negotiating with Iran—shifted after public pressure and domestic MAGA base demands, despite congressional restraint calls. Israel’s stretched resources (supposed interceptor shortages, crew fatigue) and the risk of escalation beyond its control (Houthi or Hezbollah reprisals) may have prompted U.S. action to secure a decisive blow – or it might have been an extremely effective smoke screen. At the end of the day, President Trump has shown his predilection to support a winner, and Israel could not have made his decision easier. The IDF is well and truly routing the Iranians.

Israel has stated since 1948 that it would never put the lives of U.S. servicemen to risk in order to defend itself. And so it must be clearly stated that the bombing in Iran did not put any American lives at risk. Israel had destroyed Iranian strategic Air Defense such that the B-2 had a clear path to the target. Even a less stealthy aircraft, like the B-52, would have made it there and back without a scratch. The Tomahawk cruise missiles were launched from submarines located hundreds of miles away from their targets, also out of harm’s way.

The U.S. now faces multifaceted risks. Iran has vowed retaliation against American bases in Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE, within range of its missiles, with intelligence indicating prepared strikes on U.S. positions in Iraq. The Houthi militia, backed by Iran, threatens Red Sea shipping and U.S. naval targets, while Iranian proxies in Iraq have signalled joint plans. Economically, oil price spikes  and potential Hormuz Strait mining could disrupt global markets, straining U.S. allies. An interesting side-bar: The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange rose more than 3% over the past week, indicating that investors see an Iranian demise as good for the economy. Domestically, Trump’s base and Congress may resist further entanglement, risking political division. For Israel, the immediate threat is intensified Iranian missile barrages, potentially escalating with larger and faster missile missiles. And when I say “Immediate,” I mean “Immediate.” Less than three hours after the American attack, the Iranians fired 25 missiles on Israel. As part of the attack, Iran used a Khorramshahr missile for the first time. The missile is 40 feet long and carries one and a half tons of high explosives, fifty percent more than anything used to date. It’s not something you want to fall in your environs. The destruction of Hezbollah and Hamas has weakened Iran’s proxies, but surviving elements may launch asymmetric attacks, exposing cities like Tel Aviv and Haifa to further strikes. To this end, the Lebanese President came on record warning Hezbollah not to drag Lebanon into yet another war that is not of her own making. We in the north have been warned that if Hezbollah join the fray, we might not get our now-standard 10 minutes of warning time we’ve become used to, as the flight time from Lebanon to Israel is significantly less than the flight time from Western Iran.

Now the world holds its breath. Does American involvement end here or is there more? Key factors for war expansion include Iran’s retaliation, including targeting U.S. bases, the U.S. military response, which leans toward restraint, proxy actions posing a moderate regional spillover risk, diplomatic pressure, and domestic politics. The answer to this question is based to a large extent on each country’s objectives. Israel has three objectives that it has made very clear:

1. Dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program

2. Destruction of ballistic missile capability

3. Suffocation of all remaining Iranian proxies: Houthis and Hamas

The U.S. attack addresses only the first objective, seemingly leaving Israel to address the other two. But what does the U.S. want? What is its end-game? What are its exit ramps? And what does Iran want? Is there a point in time in which the mullahs raise their hands and begin to negotiate? If the events of the past week is any indication, the answer is a firm “no.” The U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, while aimed at neutralizing an immediate threat to Israel, underscores a broader danger that extends to Europe and the United States itself. The destruction of Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan disrupts Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but the risks – retaliatory strikes, economic turmoil, and proxy wars – threaten global stability, with Europe facing energy shocks and the U.S. vulnerable to direct attacks. Yet, this bold move could pave the way for long-term peace in the Middle East by crippling Iran’s hegemonic aspirations, weakening its proxies, and forcing diplomatic concessions. If managed with strategic foresight, the operation might shift the region toward normalization, as seen in past Arab-Israeli alignments, offering a chance to end decades of conflict, not just for Israel, but for a world long shadowed by Iran’s aggression.

Good things,

Ari Sacher