An Underlying Commitment

For the past two months, the obituary writers have been working overtime. According to a steady stream of headlines, social media commentary, and Israeli opposition politicians, the special relationship between the United States and Israel was in trouble. Some even suggested it was nearing collapse.

The evidence, at least on the surface, seemed compelling. The fighting with Iran had stopped without the kind of decisive victory many Israelis expected. Reports suggested that the ceasefire was reached without full Israeli involvement. A memorandum of understanding clearly linked the end of hostilities with Iran to an Israeli withdrawal from parts of Lebanon. President Donald Trump publicly admonished Israel for reacting too aggressively to provocations. He suggested that the new Syrian government might be better positioned to contain Hezbollah than continued Israeli military operations in Lebanon. Washington's visible warming of relations with Turkey raised eyebrows in Jerusalem, particularly amid reports that the administration was considering the sale of F-35 fighter aircraft to Ankara. The final nail in the coffin was a deal regarding a civilian nuclear program for Saudi Arabia.

The verdict from many commentators was swift and unambiguous. Israel was being sidelined. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had somehow squandered Israel's most valuable strategic asset. The United States was moving on.

The problem with political analysis conducted in real time is that it often confuses the middle of the movie with the ending. Fast forward just two months. 

Israel and Lebanon have signed a peace agreement under American stewardship despite Iranian opposition and without granting Hezbollah a seat at the table. Fighting with Iran has resumed, reflecting a growing recognition in both Jerusalem and Washington that the regime remains committed to its revolutionary goals. When Iranian leaders chant "Death to America" and "Death to Israel," they are not speaking metaphorically.

The proposed F-35 sale to Turkey has been blocked by the State Department. Saudi Arabia's nuclear ambitions remain tied to broader regional normalization efforts, including the possibility of joining the Abraham Accords. And this week, Netanyahu is once again heading to the White House for high-level consultations with the president. Suddenly, the narrative looks very different.

I will admit that I found it difficult to watch the triumphant declarations from certain Israeli opposition figures over the summer. Every policy disagreement, every diplomatic wrinkle, every public disagreement between leaders was presented as proof that the US-Israel relationship was unraveling. Israel, we were told, was giving everything and receiving nothing.

History suggests otherwise. The relationship between Israel and the United States has never been built on uninterrupted harmony. Friends disagree. Allies debate. Strategic partners sometimes have different priorities, different timelines, different parameters to optimize, and different methods. The relationship has survived disputes over settlements, arms sales, peace negotiations, intelligence operations, and military campaigns. It has endured Democratic administrations and Republican administrations. It has weathered regional wars, global crises, and changing geopolitical realities.

What makes the relationship exceptional is not the absence of disagreements. It is the depth of the underlying commitment. The United States sees Israel as a reliable democratic ally in one of the world's most volatile regions. Israel sees the United States as an indispensable strategic partner and a country with which it shares fundamental values and interests. Both sides understand that their partnership generates benefits that extend far beyond any single policy dispute or diplomatic disagreement. That is why predictions of an impending rupture almost always prove premature.

Who knows how much of what we witnessed over the past two months was genuine disagreement and how much was diplomatic theater designed to influence adversaries, reassure partners, or create negotiating leverage? Foreign policy is usually conducted behind closed doors, and the public sees only a fraction of the full picture. What we do know is that the strategic logic underpinning the alliance remains intact. In many respects, it appears stronger than ever.

The lesson is a simple one. Before declaring the death of the special relationship, it is worth taking a deep breath and waiting for the next chapter. The US-Israel alliance has been tested many times before. It will be tested many times again. And each time, the same reality reasserts itself: Israel is America's closest ally in the Middle East, and America remains Israel's most important friend. Both countries know it. Both countries benefit from it. And despite the periodic predictions of its demise, both countries continue to cherish it.

Good things,

Ari Sacher